Wind AlliesTier 2
at TableCon Constructed Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |